The international political pattern behind the soa

2022-09-23
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Oil crisis: the international political pattern behind the surge in oil prices

political map of the pain of high oil prices "

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throughout the outbreak of the four oil crises, the shadow of war has always been inseparable. The Iraq war five years ago created the "soil of war" for a new round of oil price rise, which became the initial logical connection point from which the surge in oil prices could not escape

in response to the oil crisis, Professor liujinzhi of Peking University pointed out that the surge in oil prices had more hype components without a fundamental change in supply and demand

the hot money hype under the weak dollar will make the oil price soar in the short term, but it may also cause the oil price to plummet at any time

however, since the rising trend of oil prices in 2004, the rise of oil prices reflects that the dominance of energy is quietly changing, which hides the struggle of various political forces, which is the political soil to promote oil prices into the "era of high prices" for a long time

under the background that countries attach importance to energy and compete for energy, international oil prices appear to be very "sensitive", which is easy to be infinitely "amplified" by various market and political forces

western scholars pointed out that the original interdependence is disintegrating, a new order is taking shape, and the United States, its allies and other major energy consuming countries are changing from advantages to disadvantages

from the perspective of future trends, countries must take the option of "energy diversification", solve the serious dependence of daily life on non renewable energy such as oil, ensure that the price of "industrial blood" related to the lifeline of the global economy remains at a stable and reasonable level, and avoid serious oil crisis

throughout the past three oil crises, they are directly related to the outbreak of war. The Middle East war in 1973 triggered the first oil crisis; In the 1980s, the Iran Iraq war triggered the second oil crisis; In the 1990s, the Gulf War triggered the third oil crisis. It can be said that the outbreak of the first three oil crises was due to the sudden reduction of oil supply caused by the war. The oil shortage caused panic, which led to the surge in oil prices

oil crisis:

can't get rid of the shadow of war

if we look at the trajectory of the rise in oil prices in recent years, the new round of oil price rise belongs to "gradual" rise, reaching the "critical point" of the outbreak of contradictions in 2008. Looking at the international environment in recent years, oil prices can not get rid of the shadow of war

some scholars have long proposed that "2004 is the year of the outbreak of the oil crisis", which is the second year of the outbreak of the Iraq war

data show that after the first anniversary of the outbreak of the Iraq war, the idea that the war would end soon gradually turned into concern about oil supply because the war showed signs of protracted war. On March 27 of that year, international crude oil futures needed to be removed by fine polishing, exceeding $30 per barrel for the first time. Since then, the oil price has increased significantly in the context of the Iraq War: US $41.5 in 2004, US $56.7 in 2005, US $66.2 in 2006 and US $72.5 in 2007 (as of October). On January 3, 2008, the price of international crude oil futures broke through $100 for the first time

in his memoirs, Greenspan, the former chairman of the Federal Reserve, implicitly expressed the oil political attempt of the Iraq war and believed that the two wars (the Gulf War and the Iraq war) were the logical connection point of the two oil crises

energy competition:

the "political soil" for hyping oil prices

Professor Liu Jinzhi, doctoral supervisor of the school of international relations of Peking University and author of the book "American national strategy", believes that the spread of the new round of oil crisis is different from the sudden reduction of oil supply in previous times. There is no oil shortage in oil supply and demand in this crisis. Without a fundamental change in supply and demand, there is more hype about the surge in oil prices this time. Under the background that countries attach importance to energy and compete for energy, international oil prices appear to be very "sensitive", which is easy to be infinitely "amplified" by various market and political forces

from a broader perspective, in addition to capital hyping energy, countries are actually "hyping" energy, and the atmosphere of "smoke free war" for energy is very strong. Africa and the Arctic have attracted much attention since last year, because these two regions will be new territories for oil and gas exploration in the future

Similarly, since last year, Iran and Venezuela have been using "energy weapons" to expand diplomatic space. Because Iran is rich in energy, the EU, Russia, Japan, India and other countries have energy cooperation with Iran, which has greatly hampered the pace of Security Council sanctions against Iran and complicated any attempt by the United States to isolate Iran. For Chavez of Venezuela, domestic oil and gas resources are the core capital against the United States

Professor Liu Jinzhi believes that Russia's increasingly skillful use of the "energy card" is a good case of "energy diplomacy". Under the background of increasingly prominent global energy issues, Russia will improve oil and gas production capacity and develop foreign oil and gas cooperation as an important means to expand national interests and enhance the status of a major country, so as to speed up the recovery and development of its national strength. As early as 2008, some scientists believed that the "peak" period of oil production would come in the next 5 to 10 years. Once the "peak" era of oil production comes, oil production will decline year by year

in the long run, at present, the combustion growth rate index of sample products submitted by domestic enterprises for inspection shows an upward trend due to the expected increase in global demand for energy, and energy is non renewable and scarce. Similar "psychological expectations" will keep oil prices at a high level

even renewable energy such as solar energy, wind energy and biological sources can only meet one quarter of the energy demand of industrialized countries under the best circumstances. Although the contradiction between supply and demand can be solved in the short term, and the oil price can fall rapidly in the short term, in the long run, the expectation of the "theory of gradual depletion of energy" is always the support of speculative capital. The temperature and humidity of the working environment of the universal material tester will have a certain impact on electronic components

therefore, in order to solve the rise of international oil prices, we must also eliminate the global concern about the lack of energy production and supply in the future, and resolve the psychological expectation of "oil depletion". However, at present, the psychological expectation of "energy shortage" cannot be eliminated

supplier countries strengthen energy control

high oil prices change the international pattern

on June 22, the world will usher in an oil summit to deal with soaring oil prices. The meeting was convened by Saudi Arabia, a major member of OPEC, and attended by major oil producing countries, consumer countries and related enterprises

in the face of high oil prices, Western powers led by the United States hope OPEC to increase oil production, so as to stabilize oil prices and alleviate the recession that the global and American economies may fall into. In this regard, most OPEC member states have always believed that oil supply and demand are basically balanced and do not intend to increase production (Saudi Arabia has announced its production increase plan)

the contradiction between the West and OPEC on increasing production reflects the lasting transfer of power between oil consuming countries and suppliers

western scholars pointed out that the original interdependence is disintegrating, a new order is taking shape, and the United States, its allies and other major energy consuming countries are changing from advantages to disadvantages. High oil prices have made the world political pattern in the midst of profound changes, and the balance of power between oil producing countries and consumer countries is quietly changing

some analysis divides the history of oil development such as Zytel pa612 into three times. The first era was 100 years of oil abundance and American control, which lasted until 1970

the second era is the period of increasing influence of OPEC, which lasted until 2004

the third era is the current period, as consumer countries bid for limited and fragile oil supply, oil prices have become volatile

the rising oil price has served as a "strategic capital" for supplier countries, making some consumer countries gradually withdraw from the dominant market. Throughout the history of oil, the change in the dominance of oil shows the strengthening of energy control by energy suppliers, and also means the decline of the original international energy order, especially the U.S. - LED energy order

the new crisis has little impact on the West

"diversification" to deal with the oil crisis

Professor Liu Jinzhi believes that the first oil crisis has far-reaching changes in the energy field and the international pattern of Western powers - the third world countries have initially tried to use energy to fight

this oil crisis has little impact on western developed countries, because Western powers have learned lessons from previous oil crises and established and improved the system to deal with oil crises, which also provides a good "model" for developing countries with increasing energy demand

high oil prices promote "energy diversification"

after the first and second oil crises, the unfair oil system of capitalism was gradually broken, and OPEC's influence on the oil market reached its peak

at the same time, the high oil price at that time prompted the western major energy consuming countries to accelerate the pace of energy conservation and new energy development, promoted the United States to establish strategic oil reserves, and also stimulated western developed countries and oil companies to actively explore and mine petroleum in non OPEC regions

Professor Liu Jinzhi believes that the rising oil price since 2004 has actually served as a good warning to all countries, prompting them to actively adopt "energy diversification" options to deal with the oil crisis, although these options are still preliminary and still need to be continued. For example, the highly valued biofuels and the development of new energy sources such as wind and solar energy all show the "energy diversification" options of countries seeking alternative energy under the new round of oil crisis

for emerging developing countries in Asia, their economic development will face the problem of energy shortage in the future. In realizing the diversification of energy supply, research and development of energy substitution and investment in oil and gas pipelines, all countries need to cooperate and compete with other large countries and oil and gas resource countries

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