The hottest Xinhu futures position reached a new h

2022-08-17
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New lake Futures: positions hit a new high, LLDPE trading scale expanded

upstream newsletter:

NYMEX crude oil futures fell for the sixth consecutive day, as the Gulf of Mexico gradually increased after Hurricane Gustav, the U.S. unemployment rate hit a multi-year high, and economic concerns pressured the market here. The October contract closed down $1.66 or 1.54% the night before, and the settlement price was $106.41

London October Brent crude oil futures fell $2.21, or 2.08%, to $104.09 a barrel, with a trading range of 103 65 dollars

the US dollar index fell 0.2% to 78.327 The euro rose 0.9% to 1.4401 against the dollar, off an 11 month low of 1.4197 hit last week

Petrochemical trends:

Yanshan Petrochemical PE plant will be shut down for maintenance on Saturday. Yanshan Petrochemical PE plant plans to continue to reduce production in September, and the total output is expected to be reduced by 10000 tons. The specific mode of production reduction is unknown. The listing price of PetroChina northeast LLDPE was lowered. Sinopec Sales Beijing Branch LLDPE continued to be listed for sale

market situation:

Nanjing LLDPE has a stable supply of goods, and there are not many inquiries in the morning. Some traders insist on the quotation of more than 13000 yuan/ton, but the counter-offer intention is below this price. The market price of Zhongyuan LLDPE fell slightly, and traders were willing to report high prices, but there were few transactions, and the price fell for reference

business mentality:

at present, there are two kinds of differentiated mentality in the market. One is to take a dim view of the future trend, believing that the global economic growth has slowed significantly, and the economies of the European Union, Australia and Singapore have also begun to fall into a technical recession, and extremely disdain the "peak season of agricultural film", which will remain the main tone of this year. The other is optimistic about the future trend, thinking that based on the calculation of cost, the current LLDPE futures price has been seriously oversold, the current social inventory is very small, and the market circulation source is not much. The absolute low price and the upcoming peak demand season will support the future trend of LLDPE

disk situation:

the LLDPE main 901 contract of big business exchange opened today at 12860 yuan/ton, with the highest price of 12970 yuan/ton, the lowest price of 12505 yuan/ton, and the closing price of 12525 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 91354 hands, and the empty volume increased by 5382 hands to the historical peak of 20724 hands. At the beginning of the morning high jump, there was an obvious tentative desire to pull up, but after the summary, it began to fall all the way, and finally closed with a negative decline in the end. Today's trading volume and position expansion are obvious, and the technology is slightly stable. Whether it can be regarded as a double bottom if it crosses the 5-day moving average needs further confirmation, especially the uneven distribution

in depth analysis:

in the investment market, too fast rise and too fast fall often breed many irrational elements, which help rise when rising and help fall when falling. Therefore, it is not too much to say that the price of LLDPE is mostly irrational. The author has long proposed that the trend of LLDPE should not be judged blindly based on the rise and fall of international crude oil prices. Now the sharp fall in international oil prices actually provides an opportunity for the domestic refined oil pricing mechanism to be in line with international standards. If the domestic refined oil price reform is gradually implemented and successful, the convergence between LLDPE and international crude oil will significantly increase

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