The current situation of the hottest glass is diff

2022-07-31
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The current situation of glass downturn can hardly be improved in the short term.

as the weather turns cold, the terminal demand for glass is shrinking significantly, and the status of glass downturn can hardly be improved in the short term. However, glass is gradually used for public construction and entertainment decoration, so the demand for glass should not be too pessimistic

in the first week of the listing of glass futures, the market experienced ups and downs, with high enthusiasm for market participation and strong willingness to pursue funds. On the first day of the listing of heavy metal and monomer futures, most of the commodity futures closed positive, while the 1305 contract, the main part of the glass futures, bucked the trend and fell sharply, approaching the limit on the first day, becoming the leading variety on the day. On the second day, the trading volume of main contracts exceeded one million hands, and the position remained around 150000 hands, much higher than the previously listed coke, methanol and silver futures. On the third trading day, it rebounded strongly, and remained above 1300 yuan/ton for the next two trading days, attracting a large number of funds to actively participate

weak cost support and sluggish downstream demand

in the early stage, the soda ash in the upstream of glass experienced a slight rise, mainly due to the fact that the operating rate of the unit was kept at a low level of 70% or 80%, Shi and others first mixed chemically modified graphene with polyaniline fiber to form a stable mixture. However, with the successive opening of the later stage units and the sluggish downstream glass demand, it is difficult to ease in a short time, and the soda ash price may not improve greatly. In addition, recently, some refineries' units have been restarted, the operating rate has rebounded, and the market supply of heavy oil has increased. In addition, the international crude oil price has also been hovering at a low level recently, which has dragged down the heavy oil price to a certain extent, and the heavy oil price will continue to be under pressure in the later period. In short, at present, the cost support of glass is still weak

the downstream real estate market continues to be strictly controlled, and the transaction situation is not optimistic. As various uncertain factors still exist, real estate enterprises are under great financial pressure, and many enterprises are difficult to grasp the future market. At present, the overall speed of real estate development and construction has slowed down. Although the trading volume of many cities has rebounded in the fourth quarter, the inventory has declined steadily. In addition, the recent favorable domestic macroeconomic data shows that China's economy is stabilizing and bottoming out. With the continuous development of China's urbanization, the glass market may recover in the medium and long term, but the short-term impact is limited, and the glass industry may continue to be in a depressed state

overcapacity, maintaining high inventory

at present, the overall capacity of China's glass industry is overcapacity, and the price of glass that saves wood and can be recycled remains low. Glass enterprises shut down some production lines. In October, China's flat glass output was 58.41 million weight boxes, a decrease of 4.9% over the same period last year. However, the total flat glass output in the first 10 months of 2012 was about 590million weight boxes, By the end of November, the total inventory level of float glass in China had reached 26.93 million weight boxes, with a month on month increase of 0.45%, and the inventory of different PHA properties remained high

it is understood that at present, most glass enterprises are in a state of loss, and the ignition kinetic energy of production lines is seriously insufficient. Most manufacturers wait and see for the market to improve. In addition, the real estate construction industry has entered the shutdown period in winter, making the glass industry, which was originally in the off-season of demand, even worse

the fluctuation of price increase and discount affects the trend of futures price

in the face of the macroeconomic downturn, the glass market has full momentum of short selling. At present, the spot price of float glass in East China is maintained at 1480 yuan/ton. The main 1305 contract price of glass futures has been discounted by about 150 yuan/ton compared with the spot price. In 2012, the maximum fluctuation range of glass price in the benchmark East China market was only 200 yuan/ton. According to relevant statistical data, in most years, the price in May is the same as or slightly higher than that in December. Therefore, such a large discount is not in line with historical experience. The fluctuation of the later price increase and discount will affect the future price trend of glass to a certain extent

in a word, as the weather turns cold, the terminal demand for glass is shrinking significantly, and the glass downturn is difficult to change in the short term. However, in the process of urbanization, the growth rate of real estate demand is still the fastest project of fixed asset investment in China, and glass is gradually used for public construction and entertainment decoration. Therefore, the demand for glass should not be too pessimistic. Zhonghua glass () Department

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